Saturday, February 23, 2008

Number Game - Lets Look at Valuations

Indonesia theme - telecom Valuations
1. Top pick is Excelcomindo (XL), the third largest telecom operator in the 230 m +, 36% penetrated Indonesian cellular market . Business strategy include - Aggressive pricing strategy, underutlized network capacity, focuss on infra roll-out in non-java regions, giving tough competition to established players such as telkomsel and Indosat. At 1950 Rp/share, the stock is trading at 17x forecast 2009e earnings and 5.5x EV/EBITDA, the shares of XL com are trading at a deep discount to peers and a market cap of less than $2 bn. Interestingly the recent stake purchase by middle east telecom giant - Etisalat (16% stake purchase) came in at a valuation of $2.7 bn ....currently trading at a discount of more than 60% !!!.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thts looks gr8...so selling telkmosel/ indosat - is it

Anonymous said...

Appears like the call was spot on..
XL no selling at Rp2400 /share; 30% returns ..well done dude !!

 
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